Economic think-tank NCAER on Wednesday warned that lower agriculture growth would pull down average annual GDP growth to 6.7 per cent during 2002-07, as against the targeted 8.1 per cent.
With economy clocking an average 6.1 per cent in the first two years, the National Council for Applied Economic Research said: "It is expected that average growth of real GDP in the next three years would be 7.1 per cent."
The main reason for pegging down the GDP growth forecast was lower than expected 2 per cent growth in farm output as against the Tenth Plan assumption of 4 per cent growth in agriculture, it said.
Industrial growth, which averaged 6.6 per cent in 2002-04, would grow by 7.0 per cent in the 2004-07.
Services sector, which logged 7.9 per cent during 2002-04, is expected to grow by 8.5 per cent during 2004-07, NCAER said.
The NCAER also pegged down GDP growth to 6.62 per cent for this fiscal as against its earlier estimate of 6.52 per cent.
"Monsoon performance this year has not been satisfactory and agriculture sector will grow at 1.0 per cent," it said, adding that the industry was expected to clock 7.15 per cent while services sectors was seen to grow by 8.83 per cent.
Exports are expected to grow at about 20 per cent while growth in imports would be marginally higher, NCAER said.
"The Current account may remain marginally in deficit," it said.
The NCAER warned that global oil prices are expected to pull up inflation to 5.85 per cent and fiscal deficit was expected to be 4.58 per cent of GDP.