Aided by abundant agriculture production in FY-04 and rise in consumer spending, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday pegged the growth of Indian economy at 7.5 per cent for the first quarter of 2004-05 and that for the entire next fiscal at 6.3 per cent.
The real growth in GDP for 2003-04 was around 8.7 per cent with 10.2 per cent in Q4, CMIE said in its monthly economic review.
"The real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 8.7 per cent in 2003-04. Farm production in 2003-04 is expected to give rich dividends in the early FY-05 and cash income available with farmers would spur consumer spending in Q1," it said.
"We, therefore, expect the growth in the first quarter to be robust at around 7.5 per cent. This is likely to slow down to six per cent in Q2 and then to less than five per cent in Q3 and about 5.5 per cent in Q4," CMIE said.
Electioneering is also expected to contribute to the rise in consumer spending in the first quarter, it said.
The impact of rise in the consumer spending would spread across manufacturing consumer goods and services sector, CMIE said, adding that the index of industrial production is likely to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2004-05.
The growth in the manufacturing sector would be aided by a rise in domestic demand and continuation of strong global commodity prices, it said.
The services sector is projected to grow at 7.9 per cent, agriculture at 2.7 per cent and industry at 6.4 per cent, as a consequence the real GDP of the country would grow at 6.3 per cent in 2004-05.