The real gross domestic product growth is likely to touch 9 per cent in 2003-04 based on better than expected performance of the agriculture sector, according to Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy.
"The direct impact of incorporating a 14 per cent rise in agriculture in calculating growth would lead to a real GDP estimate of nine per cent in 2003-04," CMIE said in its monthly review released in New Delhi on Wednesday.
The Central Statistical Organisation has indicated a growth of 8.1 per cent for the current fiscal, which is broadly in line with CMIE's growth estimate of 8.2 per cent.
However, it is likely that these estimates could undergo changes due to the second advance estimates of the agriculture ministry which implies that crop production would grow by over 19.5 per cent as against the earlier estimate of 14 per cent, it added.
The economic think-tank said: "If we incorporate the estimates contained in second advance estimates, the agriculture sector would grow by about 14 per cent in 2003-04 as against our earlier estimate of 10.7 per cent."
Union Finance Minister Jaswant Singh had last month announced there was a 8.9 per cent GDP growth in third quarter ended December 2003.
The Index for Industrial Production grew by 6.2 per cent in first three quarters of FY-04. It is quite likely that the estimate could be revised upwards and in remaining months, the IIP would grow at a faster rate to end the fiscal with 6.5 per cent or even a little higher, CMIE added.