Taking into account the strong performance of services sector and rebound in farm sector, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy on Monday revised its projection of the GDP during 2003-04 to 8.2 per cent, much higher than the earlier forecast of 7.4 per cent.
"We believe that the growth in real GDP could be higher than 8.2 per cent for the current fiscal," CMIE said.
The services sector, which includes telecom, transport and finance, would contribute handsomely to growth in the current financial year, CMIE said in its monthly (January) review.
"The services sector is expected to grow at 8.3 per cent in FY04 as against 7.1 in FY03. It grew by seven per cent in April-September 2003," CMIE said.
The agriculture sector grew by four per cent in the first half of the fiscal and the impact of recovery would be felt in the second half.
The grain production would touch 208 million tonnes, 14.2 per cent higher than the production in 2002-03, it said.
CMIE said the industrial sector would end FY04 with 6.1 per cent growth as against the estimate of 5.2 per cent.
Turning to external trade front, CMIE said exports grew at 8.7 per cent in April-November period and the growth was expected to be sustained in the remaining months of the year.
Import grew by 21.9 per cent in April-November period. However, they are expected to decelerate and would end the year with an overall 14 per cent growth in 2003-04.
CMIE said the index of industrial production showed a healthy growth of six per cent during April-October 2003 as against 5.6 per cent in the same period of previous year.
In the remaining months of FY04, the demand for industrial products was expected to improve and buoyancy in automobiles and steel sector was likely to be maintained.
The demand for fertilisers, chemicals and textiles products was expected to more than that during the first half, CMIE said.
However, the food product sector would see a substantial fall in growth rate due to drop in sugar production, it said.
On the growth trends in services sector, CMIE said trade, hotels, transportation and communications segments grew by 11.9 per cent in the first half. This was in contrast to the pattern observed in the past when growth came largely from community, social and personal services.
The financial sector grew by little over seven per cent in the first two quarters of current fiscal, the highest ever rate achieved in this segment since 1999-2000, it added.
The same growth trend would be seen for the year as a whole in financial sector comprising banking and broking sector while community and personal services are expected to grow at 5.5 per cent.
Agriculture grew by 4.2 per cent during the first half with larger concentration of activity in July-September 2003 and the effects of the recovery from last year's drought would be felt essentially in the second half, CMIE said.