In line with other rating agencies and economic organisations, credit rating agency Crisil on Friday forecasted 7.1 per cent economic growth in the wake of an excellent monsoon, but warned that the fiscal deficit would overshoot the target besides lower export growth.
"We expect 7.1 per cent overall GDP growth in 2003-04 with agriculture growing by 7.3 per cent, industry by 6.3 per cent and services-7.5 per cent," Crisil said in its mid-year outlook released in New Delhi.
Projecting a below 10 per cent export growth as against a target of 12 per cent, Crisil expected the rupee to remain in the range of Rs 45-46 to the dollar in the current monetary and interest rate scenario.
Forecasting fiscal deficit to be at 5.8 per cent of the GDP as against the official target of 5.6 per cent, it said average inflation would hover around 4.8 per cent as against 2.9 per cent at the end of 2002-03.
Interest rates were likely to remain at current levels for the rest of the year and Reserve Bank of India's credit policy announcements on November 3 "may push the short end of the yield curve down somewhat."
Its 7.1 per cent GDP growth forecast compares well with Confederation of Indian Industry's forecast of (6.5-6.8) per cent, RBI (6 per cent), NCAER (6.6-7.0 per cent), CMIE (7.4 per cent), ICRA (6.5-6.9 per cent), HSBC (7.5 per cent), IMF (5.6 per cent) and ADB (6 per cent).
Other than RBI, all the agencies have already upgraded the projected growth rate following abundant rains in the just concluded monsoon season.