'Forecasting GDP numbers very dicey'

With an adverse global scenario looming over the Indian economy, projecting GDP numbers for the current would be 'very dicey', Chief Economic Adviser in the Finance Ministry Kaushik Basu said on Wednesday.

Basu said that while his team of researchers was yet to revalue the growth prospects, 'some scenario from the global projections is what makes it very dicey.'

The government had pegged GDP growth around nine per cent in the Budget for 2011-12.

However, the Reserve Bank later lowered the growth projections to 8 per cent, lower than the 8.5 per cent recorded in the previous fiscal in the midst of high inflation.

Its priority is to tame inflation even if the growth has to be sacrificed.

Basu said, "I have been doing some exercise. . . my group of researchers are taking stock of what could be legitimate forecast."

The hard interest rate regime of RBI had seen the industrial production growing by 6.3 per cent in April 2011 compared to an over 16 per cent growth in the year-ago period, prompting analysts to say that probably economy is slowing down.

Earlier this week Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the government has yet not taken any decision on revising the economic growth projections for 2011-12.

Continuing debt woes in Europe and spiralling inflation in many developing markets, including China, are posing a serious threat to the global economic recovery.

Against the backdrop of unrest in West Asia, the prices of crude and commodities are also rising.