Fiscal impact of stimulus to be around 0.25-0.6% of GDP in FY21: Experts

Welcoming the latest round of stimulus announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday, experts said the measures will support the economic recovery boosting demand, job creation and by providing funds to the MSME and stressed sectors.

The fiscal impact of the stimulus is likely to be around 0.25-0.6 per cent of GDP in the current fiscal, they said.

The finance minister announced tax relief on select home sale deals, enhanced credit guarantee programme for small businesses and provided incentives for new job creation as the government widened stimulus measures to boost the economy.

The measures that also include additional fertiliser subsidy and already announced production-linked incentive scheme for manufacturing units, totalled Rs 2.65 lakh crore, taking the cumulative stimulus package announced since the lockdown to almost Rs 30 lakh crore, or 15 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"The latest round of stimulus package by the government is a bouquet of measures that incentivises job creation in the informal sector, expands the supply of loanable funds through enlargement of credit guarantee scheme to support stressed sectors and a strong push to real estate, with tax incentives for home buyers that could potentially unleash a price discovery in the real estate market," SBI's chairman Dinesh Khara said.

Care Ratings' chief economist Madan Sabnavis said the measures will help in boosting employment generation, provide additional credit to the stressed sectors, multiplier effects on undertaking additional capital expenditure and spending for the real estate sector and more spending towards the rural economy.

"We expect this economic stimulus to have an impact of around 0.25 per cent - 0.6 per cent of GDP on the fiscal deficit," he said.

India Ratings and Research in a note said it expects fiscal impact of Atmanirbhar Bharat Package 3 to be Rs 1 trillion.

Major part of this package is on boost for Aatmnanirbhar Manufacturing - Production Linked Incentives (Rs 1,459.80 billion) which is likely to be over a period of time.

Moreover, this will mainly be in the form of concessions for increasing investment in the economy and it will be in the form of future revenue forgone and unlikely to have fiscal impact from increased expenditure, the agency said.

"Fiscal impact of this is estimated at around 0.5 per cent of GDP in FY21," India Ratings said in the note.

Icra's principal economist Aditi Nayar said the measures to boost capital spending and infrastructure, job creation, as well as support the rural farm and non-farm economy, will trigger a virtuous cycle in the economy.

"While the benefit of some of the measures announced may manifest into a growth boost only over the medium term, they are nonetheless very welcome," Nayar said.

K Ravichandran, senior vice president and group head - corporate ratings, Icra said that the additional allocation of Rs 65,000 crore for the fertiliser subsidy is a big positive for the industry.

Sitharaman also announced Rs 3,000 crore to Exim Bank for extending lines of credit.

Exim Bank's managing director and CEO David Rasquinha said, "Infusion of Rs 3,000 crore to the Bank will further Bank's efforts towards increasing project exports from the country.

“This will also exhibit India's goodwill in the international arena and showcase India's development capabilities of Indian companies."

SBI's research report Ecowrap said the new measures amounting to Rs 2.65 lakh crore expected to augment demand through incentivisation.

Employment generation is the key focus of the package in third round.

Bandhan Bank's managing director and CEO C S Ghosh said the government's current stimulus initiatives are timely and encouraging and should support the economy which is showing early signs of turning around.

Dun & Bradstreet global chief economist Arun Singh said the Indian government's third round of fiscal package is likely to uplift the sentiment and add to the growth momentum which has picked up during the festival season.

This could act as a great relief when concerns over the resurgence of the virus and the economy entering into a technical recession has clouded the growth prospects of India, Singh said.

Resurgent India managing director Jyoti Prakash Gadia said the Aatmanirbhar 3.0 package is a welcome step which compliments the earlier two packages announced by the government to revive the economy and take into the sustainable growth path.

According to Deloitte India partner Saraswathi Kasturirangan, the Aatmanirbhar Bharat Rozgar Yojana will enable establishments to receive subsidy for two years in respect of new eligible employees engaged on or after October 1, 2020.

Arindam Guha, partner, leader – government and public services, Deloitte India, said the total stimulus adds up to around 1.2 per cent of GDP and while some part of the SME liquidity support would be channelised through banks and NBFCs, there is a fair amount of direct funding support from the government.

Abhishek Sharma, partner (co-head - real estate), Cyril Amarchand Mangaldas said that relaxation provided in income tax rules by increasing the difference between circle rate and agreement value up to 20 per cent instead of 10 per cent earlier in case of sale of primary residential units for period up to June 30, 2021, will provide an impetus and mileage to the housing sector and its stakeholders in clearing unsold inventory.

Ashoo Gupta, Partner, Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas and Co said that these announcements clearly emphasis government's committed focus towards making affordable housing development a widespread reality in India over the next 5 years to 7 years.