India's agricultural production could see its biggest drop in more than two decades this year, due to a drought that hit nearly one-third of the country, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said on Friday.
CMIE forecast farm output would fall 10 per cent in the current year to March, after government data showed rainfall from the southwest monsoon was 19 per cent below normal.
"This could turn out to be (the) worst year since 1979-80 when it had declined by over 15 per cent," the independent forecaster said.
The monsoon is vital to the country's economic health as agriculture, which is heavily dependent on the rains, contributes 25 per cent to gross domestic product and employs more than two-thirds of India's over one billion people.
Foodgrain output is expected to shrink 11 per cent from the previous year to 187 million tonnes in 2002-03 (April-March), while oilseed production could fall 18 per cent to 16.84 million tonnes, the CMIE said in its monthly report.
It forecast rice output would slide 12.6 per cent to 80.11 million tonnes, while pulses were seen falling 7.6 per cent to 12.49 million tonnes.
India is likely to produce 96.7 million tonnes of foodgrains and 6.95 million tonnes of nine major oilseeds in the summer season -- a drop of three per cent and eight per cent respectively from the corresponding season of the previous year.
India's summer crops are harvested in February-March, while the winter crops are reaped in October-November.
By the third week of December, India had 40.3 million hectares of land under summer crops -- nine per cent lower than the acreage in the previous year, the report said.
The area under summer wheat had fallen 10.7 per cent to 17.2 million hectares, it added.
The country is estimated to have produced 90.64 million tonnes of foodgrains and 9.89 million tonnes of oilseeds in the winter season of 2002-03, the CMIE said, but did not give comparative figures.