Euro-zone growth could improve because of (a) reduced pace of fiscal tightening and (b) stronger exports, but weak domestic demand and a fragile banking system could increase deflation risks that could force the European Central Bank to turn further accommodative.
The US economy could grow above the trend over 2014-15, in response to the fading fiscal drag and improvement in private demand allowing the Fed to wind-down the third round of quantitative easing by end-2014 and begin raising rates in 2015.
But anyone expecting a sharp fall in prices across commodities as the Fed gradually reduces its bond buying through 2014 is in for a surprise.
The prices of most industrial commodities tend to strengthen as the cycle unfolds.
If the start of tapering shows the Fed is getting more positive on the growth outlook, then the prospects for commodity demand are almost certainly improving, too.
New exploration constraints
Future supply of zinc and lead was expected to be constrained, as not enough discoveries of these metals were being made.
Discovery rates in gold and silver have been healthy owing to rising prices, while discovery rates in base metals have been dismal because of the falling prices.
Global exploration spend increased from $2.9 billion to $29.4 billion over the last decade, with exploration spend having reached an all-time high in 2012.
Because lower commodity prices, exploration spend is forecast to drop by 20 per cent in 2013 and by another 15 per cent by 2020. Funding challenges would continue to include increasing exploration costs (labour, drilling and administrative costs) and a decrease in the rate of new discoveries.
Chinese demand
Uncertainty over Chinese demand continues, as growth is likely to remain subdued because of softer domestic growth and comfortable stock position.
Base metals are sensitive to economic data from China, which is the world's biggest consumer of industrial metals.
Copper is used in a wide range of industrial products, including
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