Brexit could mar Paris Agreement success

EU operates as one block at the climate change negotiations and takes a single greenhouse gas emission reduction target under the Paris Agreement

United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union may not delay the execution of the Paris Agreement on climate change but it could mar the global pact’s ability to achieve deep greenhouse emission cuts in the short- and medium- run.

The next step to operationalising the global compact requires at least 55 countries contributing at least 55 per cent of the global greenhouse gas emissions to formally join the agreement. The US and the EU have both lobbied and advocated that this get sealed by or at the G20 meeting scheduled for September 2016.

The UN is organising a high-level event, to be attended by ministers and heads of states in September, alongside the UN General Assembly, to try and get the requisite numbers of countries on board.

UK’s exit from EU may not delay the “coming into force” of the Paris Agreement, with US President Barack Obama keen to seal this as his legacy.

Edward King, editor of the UK-based Climate Home, a specialist media outlet on climate change, said, “UK may be able to ratify in 2016 before the EU and help the Paris deal come into force early. I don’t see any new government opposing the PA, and remember the UK is well on course to meeting its 2020 carbon targets.”

But “Brexit” could dull EU and UK’s enthusiasm for meeting their emission reduction and climate finance commitments to the developing world.

“Under the agreement, the developed countries are obliged to increase their emission reduction targets and financial commitments between now and 2020 as well and not just for post-2020.  EU’s appetite to do so will be further diminished by today’s events,” said an Indian climate negotiator.

“We shall not be the only ones keenly watching how the EU now meets the climate change challenge going forward, especially their short and long term commitments to provide finance to the developing world,” he added.

EU operates as one block at the climate change negotiations and takes a single greenhouse gas emission reduction target under the Paris Agreement. The burden of this target is then shared between its member countries through internal negotiations. Talks for this were be held in July.

While UK would remain a formal member of the EU for at least the next two years, the climate targets are for a much longer time-horizon running up to 2030.

“EU delayed the ratification of the second phase of Kyoto Protocol because it politically did not want to move further down that road. After Brexit, if EU members go slow on the Paris Agreement or lower their ambition, it too would be a political call. Technical and legal issues would be just a ruse,” said the Indian negotiator.

“Remember, the recession in the US too reduced the ambition and political capacity of the country to act on climate change. UK and EU are likely be see political and economic upheaval in the next two years as well,” he added.

King said: “The big question is how committed a new UK government will be to climate change. There may be so much on its to-do list when a new PM takes charge in October (that) climate gets pushed to one side... there’s also concerns that in a drive for competitiveness and slashing red tape a swathe of environmental laws from rules on waste, renewables targets and a 2025 goal to phase out coal may be ditched.”

EU would also go through its parallel and separate energy and climate policy upheaval. “In recent years the UK’s reputation as a climate leader has been tarnished, but there’s no doubt from an EU perspective it was seen as one of the key drivers of ambition on emission targets. It supported efforts to get the EU to target 50 per cent greenhouse gas emission cuts on 1990 levels by 2030 as opposed to 40 per cent.”

Without UK in the group to push the envelope, EU’s climate policy will see a recalibration. EU was once considered a global leader on climate change. Since the failure of Copenhagen accord in 2009, it has tried hard to retain that mantel in the face of Obama’s diplomatic overdrive. Brexit will could further test EU’s claims and consequently also chip away at Paris Agreement’s effectiveness.

Photograph: Jacky Naegelen/Reuters