India's southwest monsoon, crucial for the economy, is expected to be close to normal this year as the devastating El Nino weather pattern that has caused drought is nearly over, officials and analysts said on Thursday.
"The El Nino effect has become a little favourable for the monsoon," H R Hatwar, deputy director general of India Meteorological Department, told Reuters.
In 2002, poor June-September annual monsoon rains caused the worst drought in 15 years, which badly hit farm output and economic growth.
"Last year El Nino was among the factors that had created havoc. This year we can expect a near normal monsoon," another IMD official said.
The IMD had in April forecast this year's monsoon rains to be 96 per cent of the long-term average calling them "below normal" in its new set of classifications aimed at giving a more accurate picture.
According to the IMD's new scale, below-normal rainfall is 90-97 per cent of the long-term average, near normal 98-102 per cent of the average, and above normal 103-110 per cent.
India's farm production depends heavily on the timely arrival and distribution of the monsoon rains. Agriculture accounts for 25 per cent of gross domestic product and drives domestic demand in the world's 12th largest economy.
The drought was blamed for pushing the country's 2002/03 (April-March) economic growth down to 4.4 percent from 5.6 percent in the previous year. The economy is forecast to grow six percent in the current year.
"It is a fading El Nino and a fading El Nino in 1998 proved positive for Indian monsoon," G Chandrashekhar, commodities editor of Business Line newspaper said.
Monsoon on June 1
Weather officials said monsoon currents are likely to reach the Andaman Sea around May 25 and hit the southern coast of Kerala around June 1.
"But only by next week we will get a clearer idea," the IMD official said.
Hatwar said 96 per cent of the long-term average rains would be sufficient for agriculture, reservoirs and power sector if the spread of the rains is uniform.
Weather officials said the cyclone in the Bay of Bengal has not affected the timings of monsoon. "Normally, around June 1 there is another cyclone on the Andaman Sea or Bay of Bengal and that pulls the monsoon towards the coast," said a weather official from the southern state of Kerala.
Last year, the rains arrived on southern coast on schedule but July, a vital month for the farm sector, remained dry damaging oilseed and grain crops in western and central regions.
"Even if total quantum is below normal and the distribution of rainfall is satisfactory then it will prove positive for agriculture," Chandrashekhar said.
The country's stock market, one of the world's worst performers this year, should recover losses later in 2003 thanks to the economic boost from drought-breaking rains, according to a Reuters poll of brokers and fund managers released on Wednesday.
The top-30 index of the Bombay Stock Exchange, which is down 12 per cent since the start of the year, is forecast to bounce back 15 per cent to 3,421 by the end of 2003.
(Additional reporting by Hari Ramachandran)