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T V R Shenoy

Kesri could be Jain Commission's first victim

The Jain Commission was set up to investigate the death of a Congress president. Ironically, it is all set to explode the hopes of another Congress president-turned prime ministerial aspirant.

A large segment of the Congress is already baying for the blood of M Karunanidhi, P Chidambaram, V P Singh, and other United Front notables. Congressmen hold these worthies responsible for denying protection to Rajiv Gandhi in the first instance, and failing to bring his assassins to justice thereafter.

But the voice of one prominent Congressman is conspicuously silent -- Sitaram Kesri is urging restraint upon his partymen. Is this the same man who thundered in Calcutta that he would put an end to ignoble coalitions?

There is no need to look too far for his reasons. Speaking to the Congress Working Committee, Chacha Kesri vowed, "I will die rather than permit the communal forces to come to power!"

"Communal forces," is the accepted shorthand in Kesri's circles for the BJP. Strip away this nonsense, and the Congress president is saying that in a general election the support of the people of India will clearly be with the BJP.

Kesri knows perfectly well that his best -- perhaps his only -- chance of rising to the highest executive office is in the life of this Lok Sabha. He is, please remember, not a vote-winner. His reign as Congress president began with the Congress losing out in Uttar Pradesh, and he inaugurated his rule as Congress Parliamentary Party leader with the debacle in Punjab.

To his credit, Sitaram Kesri realised that fairly early on. That wretched letter-bomb of March 30, 1997, withdrawing support from the United Front, was intended to clear the path to a Kesri government. But Rashtrapati Bhavan's silence unnerved him. As angry Congress MPs cornered their president, Kesri abjectly offered to support any United Front leader but Deve Gowda.

The second serious assault upon the central secretariat came late in October. This time, Kesri was content to ask for seats at the Cabinet table. But if Shankar Dayal Sharma rebuffed him silently, the United Front did so loudly and vociferously.

Deve Gowda, speaking with all his authority as chairman of the Untied Front, was clear and contemptuous. The CPI-M's Harkishen Singh Surjeet threatened to walk out of the coalition altogether rather than sit with the Congress. The DMK, the Telugu Desam, the Asom Gana Parishad -- they were all united in turning down the Congress.

To be honest, there were some in the United Front who smiled on Kesri's proposal -- the Samajwadi Party, the Tamil Maanila Congress, and Inder Kumar Gujral. But they form a pitiful minority.

If Sitaram Kesri can't be prime minister, if he can't even put his chosen few in the Union Cabinet, then he would prefer to maintain the status quo. And this is where his problems begin.

Everyone has heard about the much touted Gujral Doctrine. But there is also a Kesri Doctrine. And both have much in common -- for they are both based on the principle of unilateral concessions!

Gujral wants the country to give everything away in a bid to win the hearts of our beloved brethren in Pakistan. Kesri wants his partymen to sacrifice power to keep "communal forces" away.

But India doesn't benefit in the long run from Gujral's idiocy. And Kesri's senior colleagues realise perfectly well that the Congress is falling apart at the grassroots. "If we can't be in the government," one MP groaned, "Can't we at least be in the Opposition?"

(And the salt in the wound is that the "communal forces" aren't suffering. Pranab Mukherjee admitted that the BJP hadn't lost an inch in Gujarat.)

But breaking the Kesri-Gujral axis isn't easy when the focus is on the "communal forces." Which is why Congressmen shifted their ground to the Jain Commission.

There is also a bonus. I am convinced that few Congressmen give a damn about Rajiv Gandhi. But the cynical calculation is that, "Soniaji is good for one election!"

Rajiv Gandhi's assassination is one issue calculated to bring Sonia Gandhi out into the field. Once she comes out openly, the Congress leaders can gather around her. Which will leave Sitaram Kesri with just two options -- quit gracefully or be pushed out.

People are speaking of I K Gujral as the Jain Commission's first victim, or perhaps Karunanidhi and the DMK. Not really, the first to fall are all of Sitaram Kesri's hope and aspirations to be India's next prime minister

T V R Shenoy