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CIA wary of India and Pakistan's nuclear plans

The Central Intelligence Agency has expressed concern over nuclear proliferation, development of missiles and weapons of mass destruction by India and Pakistan and does not rule out the prospect of another round of nuclear tests by both countries.

Competition between the two south Asian nations on the nuclear proliferation front is along predicted lines and there's no sign that the situation has improved, CIA Director George J Tenet told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. ''We still believe there is a good prospect of another round of nuclear tests,'' he said indicating that pressure exerted on both countries by the United States through slapping of comprehensive sanctions three years back has been unproductive.

Islamabad might soon respond in kind to the testing of the Agni missile.

Stating that Pakistan's development of the two-stage Shaheen II medium-range ballistic missiles will require additional assistance from Beijing, the spy chief said the US is closely monitoring for any sign of Chinese entities providing assistance to Islamabad's venture.

The director recalled the statement by the Chinese foreign ministry last November not to assist other countries in the development of ballistic missiles that could be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Based on the commitment, the Clinton administration decided not to slap sanctions against China though it possessed hard evidence of assistance provided by some Chinese companies to the Pakistani missile programme.

''Based on what we know about China's past proliferation behaviour, United States is watching and analysing carefully for any sign that Chinese entities may be acting against that commitment,'' he added.

Tenet said notwithstanding the fact that Indian and Pakistani leaders had a telephonic conversation for the first time last week paving the way for resumption of high-level talks between the countries, the ongoing peace process remains fragile. Tension could easily flare up once winter ends (when the mountain passes open in Kashmir) or by New Delhi or Islamabad manoeuvering for an edge in negotiations. Leadership changes in either country could also add to tensions. Both nations have not yet agreed to hold direct and unconditional talks.

India has been trying to engage ''selected militants and separatists'', but militant groups have kept up their assaults though a 'ceasefire' is on. The Kashmir government's decision to hold panchayat elections, for the first time in two decades, will provoke violence from extremists as they see the move as one designed to cement the status quo.

General Musharraf's manoeuvering room has also become limited because of Pakistan's internal problems - especially its economy.

The general's domestic popularity has nosedived due to a series of policies he promulgated last year. At the same time, he is being forced to contend with increasingly active Islamic ultras.

Summing up the situation in south Asia, Tenet said relations between India and Pakistan remain volatile, making the risk of war between the two nuclear entities unacceptably high. India enjoys advantages over Islamabad in most areas of conventional defence preparedness. This includes a decisive advantage in fighter aircraft, almost twice as many men at arms and a much larger economy to support defence expenditure. Consequently, Pakistan relies heavily on its nuclear weapons for deterrence.

The deep-seated rivalry, frequent artillery exchanges in Kashmir and short flight times for nuclear capable ballistic missiles and aircraft all contribute to unstable nuclear deterrence in south Asia he added.

UNI

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