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Self-preservation behind PMK pullout

N Sathiya Moorthy in Madras

It was waiting to happen, but when it happened, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam leaders in Madras were as surprised as Bharatiya Janata Party leaders in New Delhi.

The resignations by the two Union ministers of state from the Pattali Makkal Katchi, N T Shanmugam (coal) and E Ponnuswamy (petroleum), has surprised the DMK leadership so much that it is blaming the state intelligence for not alerting it.

The two PMK ministers sought an appointment with Prime Minister A B Vajpayee on the pretext of donating Rs 200,000 to the Gujarat quake victims. But accompanied by party founder Dr S Ramadoss and three other party members of Parliament, they submitted their resignations and made themselves unavailable to the media.

The prime minister's office then alerted DMK supremo and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M Karunanidhi.

The PMK's decision is seen as a prelude to the party joining hands with J Jayalalitha's All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam for the upcoming assembly elections in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry.

Alternatively, the PMK may opt for a third front or contest on its own, if only to ensure a bargaining chip in Pondicherry, where Ramadoss is eyeing the chief ministership for his son, Dr S Anbumani.

Party sources say the AIADMK's willingness to concede the chief ministership of Pondicherry will decide the fate of the alliance. Or else the PMK will contest on its own, and use its legislator-strength in Tamil Nadu to bargain for the chief ministership of the Union territory. This strategy is based on the premise that both Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry will have hung assemblies.

Interestingly, the PMK's decision came on the same day the AIADMK announced a panel to hold talks for an electoral alliance with existing and prospective allies.

Though Jayalalitha has publicly expressed willingness to hold talks with the PMK, Ramadoss seems to be holding back because the Congress-Tamil Maanila Congress question remains unresolved. As he has pointed out in the past, the presence of the Congress and the TMC in the combine could cut down on the number of seats available to his party.

It also seems that Jayalalitha is secretly working on a strategy to topple the Vajpayee government on the eve of the winter session of Parliament. The message was reportedly conveyed to Congress president Sonia Gandhi. The PMK's pullout from the government and the NDA is said to be part of that strategy.

For the PMK, however, the decision to distance itself from the NDA and the DMK is premised more on the need for self-preservation. As is known, the PMK lost out to the AIADMK even in its traditional strongholds in the 1999 Lok Sabha poll. Hence, it is seeking to move closer to the AIADMK, as the latter seems to have walked away with a substantial segment of the party's Vanniar vote bank.

Also, the DMK is reluctant to allot the PMK more assembly seats. The resignation drama may be a move to pressure the BJP to force the DMK into parting with more seats.

The Tamil Nadu unit of the BJP, however, is itself bracing to claim the 'natural second spot' for the party in the state NDA. Indications are that the BJP would like to strengthen its base in the state, with or without the PMK, while leaving it to the DMK to fashion its return to power in the state.

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BJP reacts cautiously to PMK pullout

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