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Lankan advance gives India breathing space

Amberish K Diwanji in New Delhi

With the Sri Lankan situation taking a dramatic turn, the question of evacuating Sri Lankan soldiers has receded into the background, though the Indian navy and air force remains on alert. The Indian navy in particular is monitoring the trickle of refugees coming into India, which Sri Lanka watchers warn could foment trouble for India.

With news reports coming in that the Sri Lankan army is inflicting heavy damage on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, the situation in north Sri Lanka is changing rapidly. But the Lankan army's gains have given the Indian government some space to move.

Officially, the ministry of external affairs today said that the Indian government was monitoring the situation and refused to comment on the LTTE's ceasefire offer and the Lankan government's refusal to accept it.

However, sources said the government was concerned that the fighting could result in an influx of refugees into India. There are already some reports of some people trickling in and it fears the fear is that this could turn into a flood.

"The Indian government will be most happy if the ceasefire call is accepted so that some negotiations begin between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE," government sources said.

India has offered to mediate in the dispute only if the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE seek it.

However, former envoy to Sri Lanka N N Jha pointed out that the Sri Lankan government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga was in no position to accept any ceasefire offer now.

"Let us not forget that there are elections in August in Sri Lanka. There is no way that President Kumaratunga will want the soldiers out of Jaffna, because that will be seen as a major defeat and which will destroy any chances of her re-election," Jha said.

The former envoy said that accepting a ceasefire would be more humiliating than a defeat in battle. The Sri Lankan government can only have the embattled army fight it out.

But this could push refugees once more to India, as in the 1980s, once more igniting passions in the Indian Tamil population, forcing the Tamilian politicians to take a hard line against Sri Lanka.

Two Tamilian parties are already a part of the National Democratic Alliance government, and both are known for their sympathy for the Tamilian population in Sri Lanka.

Jha was clear that refugees into India must be stalled.

"In the heart of Sri Lanka, there is a place called Madhu where the last time, some 25,000 to 26,000 refugees were sheltered. India must insist that refugees ought to rehabilitated in Sri Lanka rather than have them come over to India," Jha said.

"So far all the Tamilian political parties are more or less backing the Indian government position, but if refugees come over, then politics will intervene, making the diplomatic solution difficult," a government source said. This could force local politicians to harden their stance vis a vis Sri Lanka, putting the Union government in a bind. Already, MDMK leader Vaiko has begun speaking in terms of creating an Eelam state the way Bangladesh was created.

"Of course, there can be no comparison between Eelam and Bangladesh. The situations were vastly different, the world was different," said the government sources, adding, "one thing the Indian government is wary about is allowing the LTTE to get the upper hand because this outfit is seen as a Taliban-like terrorist group."

LTTE chief V Prabhakaran is wanted by the Indian police in connection with the Rajiv Gandhi assassination. The LTTE remains banned in India. If the LTTE acquires territorial control over the Jaffna peninsula (including a port and airport), it will send positive signals to similar outfits worldwide, something that India does not want at this juncture.

After all, it was barely a year ago that the Indian army fought a bitter war to evacuate the Pakistani army and mujahideen outfits from Indian territory in Kashmir.

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