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The Rediff Special/Amberish K Diwanji

Figure this out: The truth about Hindus and Christians

There are three kinds of untruths: lies, damned lies and statistics!

Statistics is the primary weapon employed by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad to buttress its version on the conversions controversy -- the faster growth rate of the Christian (and Muslim, though the focus at present is not on them) population as opposed to that of the Hindus.

The VHP points to the census undertaken in 1991 as its reference, and the growth in the period between 1981 and 1991 (the next census is due only in 2001).

There is no denying that some of the figures are incredible. In Arunachal Pradesh, the Christian population in the decade in question registered a growth of 225.98 per cent! The Muslim growth rate was at 135.01 per cent, while the Hindu growth rate was 73.34 per cent.

The VHP says it is in the North-East that the maximum conversion has taken place and that is the region where missionaries are the most active. To back its statement, it cites the 1991 census.

But John Dayal, convenor of the United Christian Forum for Human Rights, accuses the VHP of quoting figures out of context. "Statistics are the Devil's instrument," he says. "At the time of Independence, the Christian population in the Dangs district [in Gujarat] was slightly less than 500 and today it is around 7,500. Is an increase of 7,000 people in 50 years really too much?"

Dayal also points out that Christianity in India has grown much slower than in the rest of the world.

The 1991 census states that there were 7,824 Christians in the Dangs, up from 1,514 in 1981. This works out to a percentage increase of almost 500. In the same period, the state of Gujarat registered a population growth of 21.19 per cent. While the Hindu population grew by 21.12, Christians grew by 36.96 and Muslims by 24.05.

But statistics tell just half a story. Perhaps this is why the VHP depends wholly on percentages (it gave absolute numbers only when Rediff On The NeT asked for them specifically) while the Christian groups prefer to highlight numbers rather than percentages.

Explains Dr Ashish Bose, a leading demographer: "As any statistician will tell you, when the figures are small, percentages appear huge; and when the figures are huge, the percentages appear small." An example: Adding 2 to 10 is a 20 per cent increase, adding 2 to 100 is just a 2 per cent increase. Thus, for Uttar Pradesh today to register a 10 per cent growth in population needs 10 million people, more than the population of the entire North-East excluding Assam!

Yet, is this five-fold increase in the Christian population in the Dangs possible? Says Bose, "Growth is caused by births, deaths and migration. In the Dangs, and in other tribal areas, the birth rate is going down. The death rate remains high and hence these two cannot explain the high growth. Regarding migration, Dangs is a poor and backward district that few would want to migrate to. In these circumstances, the only possible explanation left for the five-fold increase will be conversion."

But he hastens to add that the conversions are just a drop in the ocean. "Even in the Dangs, Christians comprise only 5.4 per cent of the total population of about 150,000 and hence the recent controversy is totally uncalled for. Such a small figure should really not be a reason for the national ripples it is causing."

It may be pointed out here that the VHP claims that of a total population of 250,000 today, there are 60,000 Christians, or almost 25 per cent, in the Dangs. But these figures are not backed by any independent studies.

	Population			Percentage
	1981		1991	Growth
Mizoram	493,757		689,756	39.7
Hindus	34,245		34,788	-1.3
Christians	413,840		591,342	42.89
Muslims	2,205		4,538	105.8
Manipur	1,420,953		1,837,149	29.29
Hindus	853,180		1,059,470	24.18
Christians	421,702		626,669	48.6
Muslims	99,327		133,535	34.44
Nagaland	774,930		1,209,546	56.08
Hindus	11,266		122,473	10.07
Christians	621,590		1,057,940	70.2
Muslims	11,806		20,642	74.84
Arunachal Pradesh		631,839	864,558	36.83
Hindus		184,732	320,212	73.34
Christians		27,306	89,013	225.98
Muslims		5,073	11,922	135.01

Actually, the North-East is the only area where the Christian population has grown. The states of Meghalaya, Mizoram and Nagaland have a Christian majority while Arunachal Pradesh has a Buddhist majority. The only other states in the Union where Hindus are in a minority are Punjab (where Sikhs are in a majority) and Jammu & Kashmir (where Muslims are in a majority).

Nevertheless, despite the figures in the table above that the VHP has been highlighting, here are some more. The 1991 census for India reveals the following growth rates: country -- 23.79; Hindus -- 22.78; Christians -- 16.89; Muslims -- 32.76.

Thus, throughout India, the growth rate of the Christian population was lower than that of Hindus. And as Christian groups never tire of pointing out, the total percentage of Christians in India has actually gone down from 2.36 to 2.24 per cent during 1981-91.

Another fact is that the provinces where the population bomb is exploding -- Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan -- are states where Christians have negligible presence. And most of the growth here is of Hindus, not Christians.

It is these factors that sociologists and demographers seek to highlight to interpret the statistics. "Christians, except for those from among the tribals, are really middle-class, educated people. Hence, they tend to have small families with one or two children. This applies even to Catholics who many mistakenly believe have large families. On the other hand, Muslims are among the poor and backward class and hence have larger families," says Bose, adding, "All growth rates right now are coming down."

It must also be noted that the population growth rate in the North-East has been much higher that the all-India average, a major reason being immigration. For instance, Nagaland's growth rate is 56.1 per cent. Ditto for the other states in the region as well as Sikkim. "There has been massive migration to the North-East from the other parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Burma and Bhutan. These are people of all faiths -- Hindus, Christians and Muslims, and this is part of the reason for the high growth."

Well-known sociologist Ashis Nandy believes religious denomination is often used as a political tool: "Sometimes tribes split up and often the split group will embrace a particular faith as a part of the bargaining involved. Similarly, many Naga tribals today claim Christianity as part of the Naga national identity."

Also, being Christian-dominated, the North-East could be a magnet for Christians in other parts of the country. "It is very likely that many Christians from other parts of India have migrated to the North-East in search of better prospects, and many Hindus may have moved out. At least one group known to have moved in huge numbers to the North-East are the Kerala Christians," says Bose.

In fact, the Malayalis are one of the largest, non-native ethnic groups in the North-East today, though exact figures are not available. (The Nepalis are the other large non-native ethnic group in the region.) And interestingly, the Christian population in Kerala, around 20 per cent, has decreased.

Nandy also believes the massive growth in terms of percentages could be a problem of classification. "Often during periods of strife, people don't give their correct religious denominations. In the 1980s, many peace accords were signed in the North-East and after that people would have openly stated their faith in the 1991 census. So the increase really is a question of statement," he says.

Not just statement but the insistence of seeing religions in the singular. "You will never hear of riots between Shintos and Buddhists in Japan, because most people there are Shintos AND Buddhists," points out Nandy. "Similarly, in the North-East, in earlier years, people often quoted two or more faiths during the census enumeration. Unfortunately, this practice has stopped in recent years."

According to the Anthropological Survey of India 1994, 15 communities in the North-East were stated to be practising more than one faith. "But most Indians elsewhere simply do not understand this," says Nandy.

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