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Sena-BJP has the edge in Maharashtra: Outlook-CMS poll

A Correspondent in Bombay

An Outlook-Centre for Media Studies pre-election opinion poll in Maharashtra has given a clear edge to the Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party combine.

In the assembly election, the combine will win 138 of the 288 seats, while the Congress and its allies are likely to win 70-75 seats. The NCP (with independents) will be in third place with 64-69 seats.

In the Lok Sabha election too, the Sena-BJP is ahead. Of the 48 seats in the state, it is expected to bag 23-25. The Congress and its allies will get 11-14 seats, while the NCP will again occupy third position with 9-11 seats.

Though the anti-incumbency factor weighs heavy against the ruling alliance, the split in the Congress will help it overcome this handicap.

The Outlook-CMS poll says 58 per cent of the respondents expressed unhappiness with the performance of the Maharashtra government.

In the assembly the Congress, had it not split, would have won a landslide victory with 53.9 per cent of the votes. But with the NCP in the picture, the Congress vote share will be down to 27.2 per cent, with the NCP taking away 26.7 per cent. This means the Sena-BJP combine with 31.3 per cent of the votes will form the next government.

Similarly, in the Lok Sabha election, without the Pawar rebellion, the Congress would have won a whopping 62.7 per cent of the votes. As things stand, the Sena-BJP combine with 37.3 per cent of the votes is well ahead. The Congress will end up with 34.1 per cent and the NCP with 28.6.

An interesting finding of the opinion poll is Sharad Pawar's high approval rating for chief ministership. Thirty-one per cent of the respondents named the NCP president as the man they would like to see as chief minister. Deputy Chief Minister Gopinath Munde of the BJP came second with 15 per cent, while Narayan Rane, the incumbent, came in seventh in a list of nine, with only 6 per cent respondents backing him.

The opinion poll reveals that Bal Thackeray being debarred from voting will not adversely affect the Sena's chances. This is the opinion of as many as 77 per cent of the respondents.

Fifty-five per cent of those polled felt that the chances of the Sena-BJP alliance had shown an upswing in the last 15 days. As many as 56 per cent felt the combine should be given another chance.

The opinion poll was conducted in 27 assembly constituencies covering all six regions of the state. In all, 2,700 voters were interviewed between August 8 and 14.

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